How Will it Depreciate?

"K-Roll-PorscheTamer" (k-roll390)
10/21/2015 at 15:32 • Filed to: Depreciation Game

How much, how fast, or how little do we think the M4(and I guess M3...) will depreciate over the next 5 years? 10 years?

Let’s do one more for giggles:

Same questions apply.

DISCUSSION (53)

bob and john > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 15:37

M twins:

in 5 years, it will be worth 45K. 10 years, 15-20K

Vette stingray: 5 years: 40K 10 years 20k

RightFootDown > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 15:40

Look at the E9X M3 for comparison.

RallyWrench > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 15:41

My prediction: The M3/4 will not age gracefully, because BMW forgot how to build durable cars about 10 years ago. Thus, they’ll be worth 15k or so in 10 years, with annual maintenance costs that are a significant percentage of that number.

bob and john > RightFootDown
10/21/2015 at 15:45

dont think u can, as E9X M3 was last M3 coupe, and the ONLY V8 ever. so it will probably have higher values

Azrek > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 15:47

Yeah, I’ve had some absurd offers for my low mileage E92 from some car companies offering new designs. Someone has been researching me a bit too much....and I don’t like it.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 15:48

I hope you’re right, but I doubt it, at least not over the 5-10 year period. However, at some point, fairly low-mileage, well-kept examples will demand a premium (just like E46 M3s do now).

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > RallyWrench
10/21/2015 at 15:54

Not durable cars? Gonna need you to clarify/’splain that one. And along with that, if that’s the case, how bad does this affect them?

Party-vi > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 15:57

BMW had a slew of issues when they introduced turbocharging in their newer straight-6 engines, mostly from the high pressure fuel pump failures and then more issues with the hot-vee V8 turbo engines. That, and cooling systems have always been a BMW Achilles heel.

Logansteno: Bought a VW? > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 15:59

I’d look at E46 prices to compare really. Not to put either of them down, but there’s nothing really special about this gen. The E90 had a V8 and was the last car to have an M3 coupe as an option. You can’t really use E36 prices because ours are worth less because they’re less powerful. The F80, like the E46, will just be an old high performance German car.

FazeRacer > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:02

I think the M will depreciate faster, will be the same price as the Vette in 5 years.

bob and john > FazeRacer
10/21/2015 at 16:04

i’m going to argue tht the vette is more of a collectors car then the BMW, thats why it will have a bit more value.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:06

M3/4 - usually 4-5 years to drop by half in value (assuming no major reliability concerns), depreciation slows some after that, but ~$25k for a well-kept 10 year old M with reasonable miles is probably about right.

C7 - due to oversupply, values will drop a little more quickly (especially automatics), but there will always be enough demand to keep values from tanking too hard.

Generations matter, too. Right now, a 10 year old M3 is two generations back, and looking dated to many, while a 10 year old Corvette still looks a lot like a 2 year old Corvette...

FazeRacer > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:06

Agreed. I don’t think the M3 is that special a car, it’s not worth what they ask for it (at least in Canada, $74K WAT?).

bob and john > FazeRacer
10/21/2015 at 16:08

and thats BASE lol. optioned they will top 100k.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:08

A base C7 is a “collector’s car”?

pjhusa > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:08

I don’t know. Would be a great first car for me, but I can drive in... let’s see... 3 years to a learner’s permit, I believe?

FazeRacer > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:10

True that, fuck that noise. You can get a Z06 for that price. That being said, the M235i has an ok price for what you get, maybe a little high but not crazy like their M models.

FazeRacer > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
10/21/2015 at 16:12

For it’s price it’s more interesting than an M3 or M4.

bob and john > FazeRacer
10/21/2015 at 16:12

the M models where always High priced.

but lets be honest...they are also really good cars. when you can stand toe to toe with a 911 as a compact luxury sedan, your doing something right. just a pit OP.

speaking of OP, the porsche Cayman GT4....120K. LOL WUT

FazeRacer > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:14

It’s a mistake for Porsche to price that car above $100k. You’re in 911 territory at that price.

KatzManDu > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:15

I think we’re on the precipice of a paradigm shift with automobiles. Laugh at my crypto-management speak, but I really think in the next 5-10 years we’ll see a shift with energy (far more electric cars) and far more options (self-driving.) This can go two ways...

1) Cars with internal-combustion engines will drop in value significantly, because demand will dry up. Usable electric cars will be ubiquitous.

2) Cars without self-driving functionality will also follow the same fate. They’ll have significantly cheaper insurance costs, too, which got into the lower operating cost bucket, making older cars even less desirable.

3) Now, counter that. Among enthusiasts there will be a die-hard crowd who insists on driving themselves (us oppos) and specific sports cars (M3, Corvette, etc.) will be sought after. But likely not at the rate that keeps them scarce enough to be expensive.

4) Finally, another nail in the coffin. Continental European countries are implementing extremely expensive carbon taxes on large engines. I’ve posted about my fact finding after living in Belgium for the past year. To register a 15 year old 5.0L 400hp M5 I’m looking at €5,000 initially and €3,300 per year later. I only see these taxes going up and getting worse across the EU and will eventually spread across the ocean (think California.) This will drive even less demand for petrol/diesel cars as more electric cars take the spotlight.

I’m already seeing nice E90 M3 examples here in the EU at the €30,000 mark and they seem to be tracking that way in the US, too. A co-worker just bought a very nice Aston Martin V8 Vantage for a song and I see similar cars for even less than what he paid (he’s based in the UK and paid £ and not €) but the net result is that the taxes on the continent are more punitive and the same car costs less to buy (but far more to register.)

Some references:

Low mileage Aston: http://ww3.autoscout24.fr/classified/276…

High mileage Aston: http://www.2ememain.be/autos/aston-ma…

M3: http://ww3.autoscout24.fr/classified/264…

The bonus for depreciation are early R8s. Those go for peanuts compared to original MSRP. They are far more pricey in the USA for similar vintage. €30-€40,000 here and they’re $60-$70k in the US.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > FazeRacer
10/21/2015 at 16:15

I won’t argue with that, but there are way too many of them to put them in a collector’s car category. A Z06? Yes.

RightFootDown > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:17

Let’s revisit this post in 5 years.

bob and john > FazeRacer
10/21/2015 at 16:17

thats WELL into 911 territory. 911 starts at 100k IN CANADA.

cayman GT4? starts at 96K in canada. 4 k difference. Whats the point?

bob and john > RightFootDown
10/21/2015 at 16:21

*bookmarked*

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:24

GT4 > base 911 by quite a bit (unless you need space).

That said, I think the Cayman GTS is really the one to have. I’ll let depreciation have it’s way with it first, though...

bob and john > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
10/21/2015 at 16:25

that was a BASE GT4 vs a BASE 911. you can get a GT4 to 140K in canada. F-that

E92M3 > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:26

By 5 years it will depreciate to 50% of it’s original price. 10 years it’ll be around $25k for a clean one. Year 5 is a great time to buy a M3 that’s barely broken in, and drive it to 100k miles.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > RightFootDown
10/21/2015 at 16:27

The ‘08s will be ten year old in less than three years.

He probably needed to add a mileage component to his question. Maybe <40k after 5 years and <80k after 10?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > E92M3
10/21/2015 at 16:29

Listen to this guy.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > pjhusa
10/21/2015 at 16:30

M3 = great first car? Ahhh... no.

Try Subaru BRZ instead.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 16:32

That’s fine. Base GT4 is a better sports car than a Base 911.

Tripper > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:40

Experienced used M3 buyer here:

I bought my 2002 M3 in late 2007. The original window sticker was 58k and change. I purchased the car with 24k miles and paid 35k.

I bought the 2008 M3 in late 2013. The original window sticker was 65k and change. I purchased the car with 53k miles and paid 32k.

The E46 is still in the driveway, the E90 got flipped for my S3.

So I predict that you will be able to grab one for about half of the original sticker if you wait 4-5 years and find one that has “middle range” miles on it. It seems to me that the E90 depreciated a little faster than the E46, and I would guess that the F80 may depreciate a litte faster than the E90.

I would say that a F80 is on the distant horizon for me, but I’m thinking that the M2 will likely be my next car.

RightFootDown > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
10/21/2015 at 16:46

A quick browse through Autotrader.com shows the average list price of 2008 M3 with 50k miles as right about $35k. In 2008 an M3 Coupe could be had for $55k. That’s 37% depreciation after 7 years.

Now let’s compare to a 2014 M3 Coupe, which was produced when we all knew the F80 was around the corner. I want to say the MSRP was $58k. With 50k miles, they’re now around $45k. That’s 26% depreciation after 2 years.

As expected, the largest hit comes just after purchase. The E92 M3 appears to have depreciated 26% after 2 years but only another 10% 5 years later. The F80 isn’t any less exclusive and maintenance costs similar so I suspect the F80 will follow suit.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:58

It will depreciate something like this:

Kinja'd!!!

After 4 years, you can expect it to be depreciated by around 60%.

So that means the ~$70,000 the M4 costs new will be worth around $28,000.

Having said that, there are some jackass dealers who will try to sell a used car for almost as much as a new one... like this:

http://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/…

But without too much work, you can find deals like these:

http://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/…

RallyWrench > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 16:58

Sure. Years ago, you could buy a BMW and reasonably expect over 200,000 miles on regular maintenance alone. They haven’t built a car capable of that since the E46 and E39, arguably since the E34/36/38. Of course I’ve seen exceptions, but they’re few and far between. Generally the E60/65/90 and newer tend to require large repairs (by my definition, those over $1000 or that disable the car) by or shortly after 100,000 miles, and start crumbling cosmetically within 5-6 years. The N62 V8 is a heinous piece of shit, and while I’ve now seen the N51/52/54/55 6-cylinder engines exceed 200k, they take a lot more money to do so than their predecessors, and are attached to transmissions that are made out of glass. Many of my clients buy their cars starry-eyed, and come to hate them. I recommend getting rid of them all the time, and people call back and thank me for it. BMWs reputation doesn’t take a hit, because they perform great during the warranty and lease periods, not affecting their ratings. After that, they trickle down to used car lots and the purgatory of dealer auctions

Add to that the increased level of performance of an M variant, and its inherently more expensive specialized parts, and you have a recipe for large depreciation and a large number of cars no longer on the road. How many good E46 M3s do you see any more, let alone the catastrophically bad E60 M5 or E63 M6? Those two are capable of consuming their value yearly in repair costs. The values reach a point that people who really have no business owning them pick them up, and they atrophy into oblivion.

Also, I don’t know if you’ve ever seen The Graduate , but there’s a famous line at the end in which a young Dustin Hoffman is told when considering career options, “I’ve got one word for you, son. Plastics.” It comes to mind because those plastics have played an instrumental role in increasing the service costs in inverse proportion to reliability. They have good reasons for using them, such as low cost, lower weight, ease of production, and so on, but it hasn’t helped the longevity.

Mind you, this is my opinion. But I’ve worked on and owned BMWs for almost 20 years, and have been (and remain) a student and enthusiast of them for much longer than that, and I don’t see the same quality in their product that I once did. They seem to have shifted from an emphasis on engineering, building solid, durable, heirloom-quality automobiles to an emphasis on marketing and planned obsolescence, getting people to buy the next big thing. It makes business sense, I’m sure, but it’s a been a race to the bottom for their product. In fairness to BMW, they’re not the only ones who have done this. It’s a symptom of a culture that increasingly encourages conspicuous consumption and growth at all costs.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > RightFootDown
10/21/2015 at 17:12

Very, very few M3s are sold at the base price with no options. I’d argue the actual average price paid is $5-10k over base. DCT alone is about $3k.

I believe the MSRP of my ‘08 manual (loaded) sedan was ~$63.5k. I bought it in the summer of ‘12 with 40k miles for just over $40k (about 35% depreciation). It now has about 80k miles on it, and I think I could probably get $30k (a little more than 50% depreciated at this point).

I’d expect the F8x to lose half its value in a similar timeframe.

Montalvo > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 17:35

Prices will sink like a rock, the past 3 generations of BMWs in my family have by the end of the lease started to show some gremlins beginning to pop up. They are built to perform very well but the higher strung nature now means they don’t age too gracefully. An E30,46 and non M E90s are pretty much bullet proof but past that there is a lot more complexity across all the trims in their lineup. Turbocharging just further adds complexity. High parts and labor costs will help drive costs down. These cars are following the path of AMGs where you want them but only while you are still covered by warranty. If you want a really good track toy though they will be right up your alley, just don’t expect DD level reliability 15 years down the line.

LuczOr > RallyWrench
10/21/2015 at 18:13

So much truth in this post right here.

Sincerely,

E39 M5 owner.

P.S. The M5 is currently parked at home with a blown VANOS oil pressure line. Speaking of VANOS, yes mine rattles on startup.

RallyWrench > LuczOr
10/21/2015 at 18:37

You own what is in my opinion the greatest BMW road car ever made. Yes, they have the occasional VANOS solenoid or line issue, but they are damn good cars, especially considering their capability.

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > RallyWrench
10/21/2015 at 19:16

Wow.....I'm gone have to type a better comment later, but for now, I'm curious as to why you say the M5 and M6 V10s are bad?

LuczOr > RallyWrench
10/21/2015 at 19:28

I truly love the car, but I know it’s going to cost me to continue owning it. They certainly have their share of problems. 6 days after I bought the thing, the radiator end tank exploded. The thrust arm bushings go bad in pretty short order. The rear sway bar end links don’t really last. MAF’s will certainly go some time. That said, I don’t ever really plan on selling it unless I replace it with a 2nd gen CTS-V Wagon in manual with Recaros and a panoramic sunroof.

Also, the rear tires on the M5 don’t seem to last very long, but I don’t think that’s the car’s fault, huehue.

RallyWrench > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 19:50

Let’s see... broken valve springs, failed internal VANOS lines and pumps on early cars, premature rod bearing failure, SMG control problems (and generally awful driveability), $10,000 catalytic converters that don’t last past 100k, bad throttle actuators at over $600 apiece, problematic body electronics, leaking sway bars (they’re hydraulic), and so on. You couldn’t pay me to drive one of those. I’ll grant that the engine is spectacular when it’s on song, but keeping it there is ruinously expensive. Given how fundamentally good and comparatively simple the E39 M5 is, the E60 looks foolish in comparison. For all the extra power, theater and complication, the E60 is only slightly quicker. I can’t wait to see how the F10 M5 goes wrong, those look to be a complete bastard to work on. They sure are great by the numbers, but let’s see where they stand in 5-10 years.

RallyWrench > LuczOr
10/21/2015 at 19:54

Tires and clutches can be considered consumables on M5s :) Whatever you’ll spend to keep that machine on the road is pennies compared to its successor. It’s a keeper, man. They’re pretty well fully depreciated at this point as well, so if you keep it up I doubt you’ll lose much in value.

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > RallyWrench
10/21/2015 at 20:00

So the cheapest way into an “Exotic” V10 is also the most suicidal way as well? I honestly can’t to see how all these new turbo-ized cars fare in the next 5-10 years as well.

RallyWrench > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/21/2015 at 20:08

Well, I mean, you could buy a 6.8L Ford truck or a V10 Ram and cut the exhaust off... but yes, buying a V10 BMW M-car is financial suicide.

As far as the turbo BMWs go, if the 335 and N63 turbo V8 7-series are anything to go by, it won’t be good.

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > RallyWrench
10/21/2015 at 21:03

How bad are 335s? I swear everyone I see is modded with more boost and stuff. 7-series too?

wbizarre - OEM fetishist > bob and john
10/21/2015 at 23:04

I don’t think the M4 badge will have any impact at all - What is an M by any other name? Secondly, pretty much every generation of M3 was the first or last of something: E30 - first ever ever ever + first and last(so far) 4cylinder, E36 - first four-door + first I6 + bonus for Euro-spec, E46 - last NA I6, E90 - first and last(so far) V8, F30 - First turbo + return to I6. Every generation has a claim to special value. How those claims are converted to cash depends on the zeitgeist of the vintage car market at a given moment.

Carbon Fiber Sasquatch > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
10/21/2015 at 23:05

The orange is a special edition, I bet the dealer thinks it’s worth more because of it

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
10/22/2015 at 00:34

Yeah... but that dealer is under the delusion that it’s worth twice as much... which it isn’t.

Carbon Fiber Sasquatch > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
10/22/2015 at 00:49

You’re not wrong lol

LuczOr > RallyWrench
10/22/2015 at 03:00

Yeah, the specs of the E60 M5 are fantastic and the sound is pure bliss, but I just can’t stomach spending half or more of a vehicle’s value in repairs annually. I can’t think of another car that absolutely needs rod bearings before 100k.

TulsaMtnBiker (OkieRising) > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
10/30/2015 at 09:01

I think the others are on point with using the e92 curve as an example. I bought my f82 for 69, owned it for a year and put 12000 miles on it, and sold it for 66.